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Superforecaster CLI

A command-line tool for tracking and improving your probabilistic predictions.

Installation

cd superforecaster
pip install -e .

Usage

Add a forecast

forecast add "Will AGI be achieved by 2030?" --prob 25 --by 2030-01-01

List forecasts

forecast list
forecast list --all  # Include resolved forecasts

Resolve a forecast

forecast resolve 1 --outcome true

View your performance

forecast score       # Show Brier and log scores
forecast calibration # Show calibration analysis
forecast stats       # Comprehensive statistics

Visualize your progress

forecast chart calibration  # Calibration plot
forecast chart brier        # Brier score over time
forecast chart distribution # Probability distribution
forecast chart accuracy     # Accuracy by confidence

Show forecast details

forecast show 1

Features

  • SQLite Database: Persistent storage in ~/.superforecaster/
  • Brier & Log Scoring: Track your forecasting accuracy
  • Calibration Analysis: See if your confidence matches reality
  • Terminal Charts: Visualize performance with plotext
  • Rich CLI: Beautiful tables and formatting

Example Workflow

  1. Make predictions about future events
  2. Resolve them when outcomes are known
  3. Track your calibration and accuracy over time
  4. Use insights to improve future predictions