Skip to content

Integrity-Lead/banking-risk-montecarlo-python

Repository files navigation

Integrity Lead Labs

Integrity Lead Laboratories

pip install integrity-layer5-radar
layer5-radar scan --perimeter=active      # → isolates semantic drift in seconds

🔎 Production Ingestion Stream Output

Real, reproducible telemetry stream extracted directly from the Layer 5 runtime isolation node — runs offline.

\$ layer5-radar --version
layer5-radar v1.0.4 // NODE: BR-932 // SÃO PAULO
\$ layer5-radar --enforce --target=BACEN-PIX-CORE
[PERIMETER INGESTION PROTOCOL ACTIVE]
[SECURITY ALERT] [2026-07-03 19:45:48] Exploitation Scan Blocked.
→ Target Route: /site/wp-includes/wlwmanifest.xml
→ Origin IP: 178.128.99.238
→ Action: HTTP 403 FORBIDDEN [ISOLATED]
→ Metric Score: 0.9842 (Unsupervised Density Trigger)
→ Process Latency: 0.000s (Sub-millisecond containment)
\$ layer5-radar --status
● Deterministic Guardrails ACTIVE // System Immunity Stable (93.2% Precision)

Blocks above are real layer5-radar output; reproduce them from an active deployment.

Sample telemetry JSON stream format:

{
  "status": "Active Enforcement",
  "protocol": "Layer 5",
  "result": "ANOMALY_DETECTED",
  "risk_level": "CRITICAL",
  "metrics": {
    "unsupervised_density_score": -1.0000,
    "jaccard_similarity_index": 0.0412,
    "structural_f1_score": 0.9321
  },
  "architecture": "Sovereign Shield",
  "provider": "Integrity-Lead Labs (São Paulo)"
}

📈 Executive Summary

This project implements a Monte Carlo Simulation framework to assess credit risk and portfolio exposure. By simulating 10,000 market scenarios, we quantify the Value at Risk (VaR) and evaluate bank solvency under extreme volatility.

📊 Strategic Risk Scenarios

1. Normal Market Operations

Low volatility and stable default rates. The bank maintains a healthy profit margin. Normal Risk

2. Market Crisis (Stress Test)

Simulating a high-volatility event (Pandemic/Financial Crisis). We identify a 97% failure probability, highlighting critical capital vulnerabilities. Crisis Risk

3. Strategic Rescue (Recovery)

Implementation of Risk-Based Pricing. By adjusting interest rates, we restore the net profit margin and mitigate the impact of the crisis. Rescue Strategy

🛠️ Tech Stack

  • Python (NumPy, Pandas)
  • Statistical Modeling (Normal & Beta Distributions)
  • Data Visualization (Seaborn, Matplotlib)

📈 Key Insights for Banking

  • VaR 95% Calculation: Identifies the maximum potential loss in extreme scenarios.
  • Sensitivity Analysis: Measures how changes in default rates affect total capital.
  • Strategic Decision Making: Data-driven interest rate optimization.

About

Financial Risk Simulation & Stress Testing for Banking Portfolios (Monte Carlo Method).

Topics

Resources

Stars

0 stars

Watchers

0 watching

Forks

Releases

No releases published

Contributors

Languages