Watch a 5000 HKD 🦞 claw take on 30 public market days in U.S. stocks. 看一只起步于 5000 HKD 的 🦞 claw，连续 30 天公开挑战美股市场。
Last synced by decision / 决策触发同步时间: 2026-03-25 04:18:32 CST
- a real 30-day live challenge, not backtest theater / 一个真实连续 30 天的实盘挑战，不是回测表演
- public updates on decisions, recaps, and turning points / 决策变化、每日复盘和关键转折都会公开更新
- a visible learning log that shows how the 🦞 claw updates its lessons over time / 一个公开学习日志，能看到 🦞 claw 如何随着挑战推进不断更新经验
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Day / 当前天数 | 16 / 30 (53.3%) |
| Starting capital / 起始资金 | 5000 HKD |
| Current equity / 当前权益 | HKD 4,622.19 |
| Net PnL / 累计盈亏 | -HKD 377.81 |
| Open positions / 当前持仓标的 | 1 open: MU |
| Latest move / 最新动作 | [US] HOLD / [US] 观望 |
- Full challenge index / 全部挑战索引: docs/challenge-tracker.md
- Public memory / 公开记忆: docs/public-memory/README.md
Follow how the 🦞 claw turns finished trades, missed timing, and quiet sessions into reusable lessons. 看这只 🦞 claw 如何把已完成交易、时机判断和观望时段，沉淀成可复用的公开经验。
- Latest learning log / 最新学习日志: docs/public-memory/README.md
- Daily notes / 每日学习记录: docs/public-memory/short-memory.md
- Durable lessons / 长期经验库: docs/public-memory/long-memory.md
- Updated / 更新时间: 2026-03-25 04:17:39 CST (UTC+08:00)
- Current book / 当前组合:
MU - Floating PnL / 当前浮动盈亏: -HKD 176.87
- Latest decision / 最新决策: [US] HOLD / [US] 观望
- Next milestone / 下一阶段: Day
17of30 - Public monitor / 公开监控: docs/public-monitor/2026/2026-03-25.md
- Daily report / 每日报告: docs/daily-reports/2026/2026-03-25.md
- Execution objective / 执行目标: deploy pocket capital only when the expected edge remains meaningfully above fees and sizing limits, with no leverage and no shorting. 仅在预期优势明显高于手续费且满足仓位上限时动用口袋资金，不加杠杆、不做空。
- Session discipline / 时段纪律: live decisions stay inside regular sessions, capped at 5 trade(s) per hour, with a 8% cash reserve and HKD 5000 daily loss stop. 实盘决策仅在常规交易时段内执行，每小时最多 5 笔，并保留 8% 现金缓冲，单日亏损达到 HKD 5000 即停止扩张。
- Live pools today / 今日实盘池: US:
TSM,RIVN,TSLA,AMD| HK: none / 暂无. 今日实盘池如上，按市场分别执行。 - Observation focus today / 今日观察重点: themes
半导体,AI芯片,云软件,中概,电动车,手机链,消费电子,CPO,光模块,存储; public observation pool US: none / 暂无 | HK: none / 暂无. 今日观察主题为半导体,AI芯片,云软件,中概,电动车,手机链,消费电子,CPO,光模块,存储，并同步公开观察池变化。 - Explicit exclusions / 明确排除:
智谱,MiniMax,三星电子,SK 海力士,7709.HKstay out of the live universe when they violate the rules. 凡与规则冲突的标的（如上）均不进入实盘池。 - Latest gate result / 最新门槛结论: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name,
TSLA, still showed score -2.29, post-fee EV -1.22%, and win probability 62.0%. / compare stage 已确认当前不值得开新风险，直接维持 HOLD。
- Result / 结果: [US] HOLD / [US] 观望
- Rationale / 理由: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name,
TSLA, still showed score -2.29, post-fee EV -1.22%, and win probability 62.0%. / compare stage 已确认当前不值得开新风险，直接维持 HOLD。 - Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: mixed tape; Path: standard decision flow; Model: gpt-5.4; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.36. / 市场状态：混合状态；决策链路：常规决策链路；模型：gpt-5.4；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.36。
- Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks:
TSLA(EV) | score -2.29 | post-fee EV -1.22% | win 62.0%;ASML(semiconductor) | score -2.38 | post-fee EV -0.66% | win 60.2%;TSM(semiconductor) | score -2.47 | post-fee EV -0.74% | win 59.0%. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：TSLA（电动车） | 评分 -2.29 | 扣费后 EV -1.22% | 胜率 62.0%；ASML（半导体） | 评分 -2.38 | 扣费后 EV -0.66% | 胜率 60.2%；TSM（半导体） | 评分 -2.47 | 扣费后 EV -0.74% | 胜率 59.0%。 - Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。
- Starting pocket capital / 起始口袋资金:
5000 HKD - Default market / 默认市场:
USequities first, with HK monitoring when relevant / 以US市场为主，必要时监控港股 - Public operation day 1 / 公开运行首日:
2026-03-10 - Guardrails / 约束: whitelist-only, bounded deployment, no leverage, no short / 白名单、有限资金、不加杠杆、不做空
- Disclosure boundary / 披露边界: publish strategy, holdings status, decision status, and daily activity only / 只披露策略、持仓状态、决策状态和每日交易活动
- current holdings with quantity / 当前持仓与数量
- latest trade timing and execution rationale / 最新交易时机与执行理由
- latest no-trade reason and next watch item / 最新观望理由与下一步观察点
- public operating rules / 对外可披露的操作规则