📊 Gold Price Statistical Analysis in R

This repository contains R code for analyzing the statistical relationships between gold prices and various economic indicators, including the USD Index (DXY), crude oil, S&P 500, RSI, and moving averages. The analysis includes hypothesis testing, correlation studies, seasonal trends, and Monte Carlo simulations.

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📁 Dataset

File Required: Gold final PS.csv

Expected Columns:

• time: Date (YYYY-MM-DD)
• close: Gold price
• dxy_close: US Dollar Index
• light_crude_oil_close: Crude Oil price
• sp500_close: S&P 500 Index
• gold_RSI: Relative Strength Index
• gold_SMA_10, gold_SMA_50, gold_SMA_200: Simple Moving Averages

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📦 Requirements

Install required R packages:

install.packages(c("ggplot2", "BSDA", "zoo", "dplyr", "lubridate", "tidyr"))

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▶️ How to Run

1. Clone the repository:

   git clone https://github.com/yourusername/gold-price-analysis.git
   cd gold-price-analysis

2. Open and run the R script:

   • gold_analysis.R — contains all analyses

3. Load data by modifying the path in the script:

   data <- read.csv("path/to/Gold final PS.csv")

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🧪 Analyses Performed

📈 Correlation Analysis

• Pearson correlations between gold and:
  • DXY
  • Crude Oil
  • S&P 500
  • RSI

🔬 Hypothesis Testing

• Z-tests on gold prices based on:
  • High vs. low DXY
  • Crude oil price ranges
  • RSI overbought/oversold
  • SMA crossover conditions

📊 Rolling Statistics

• 30-day rolling mean
• 30-day rolling volatility
• Plotting key historical periods (e.g., 2008)

📅 Seasonality & ANOVA

• Monthly average returns
• One-way ANOVA to detect significant seasonal patterns
• Tukey’s HSD post-hoc test

🔄 Monte Carlo Simulation

• Simulates future gold prices using daily return volatility
• 1-year projection with 1,000 trials

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📌 Key Outputs

• Line plots with moving averages
• Correlation matrix
• RSI return analysis
• Monthly return seasonality plot
• Monte Carlo simulation fan chart

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📂 File Structure

├── Gold final PS.csv       # Input data file
├── gold_analysis.R         # Main R script
├── README.md               # This README
└── /outputs                # (Optional) Generated plots and results

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📝 Interpretation Highlights

• DXY vs Gold: Negative correlation — supports safe-haven narrative.
• Oil vs Gold: Positive in inflationary conditions.
• RSI Returns: Statistically significant overbought/oversold behavior.
• Seasonality: November–January tend to outperform (ANOVA confirmed).
• Forecasting: Simulated price bands provide risk-based outlook.

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📜 License

This project is licensed under the MIT License.

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🙋‍♂️ Contributing

Contributions are welcome! Please open issues or submit pull requests.